Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a78…00d5 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$77
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.3% -40.6% 39% 33% -42.9%
≤30d 82 -25.2% -32.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
≤90d 82 -25.2% -32.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
all 82 -25.2% -32.3% 46% 37% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 37% -17.9%
10% -38.8% 28% -25.7%
15% -44.7% 21% -32.9%
20% -50.1% 17% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage11d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$28 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$43 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$8 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$49 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $18 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records