Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a7a…df1b other 397 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$43,346 (+217%) realized +$51,202 · open −$7,856
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%167W / 118L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$26,645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$9,972
other 26% +$2,900
politics 22% −$9,838
tech 4% +$258
finance 3% +$44
economics 1% +$178
crypto 1% +$128
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+103.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +195.2% +167.1% 71% 63% +103.7%
≤30d 255 +135.7% +113.3% 60% 53% +64.6%
≤90d 285 +124.4% +103.0% 59% 51% +57.0%
all 285 +124.4% +103.0% 59% 51% +57.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +103.0% 51% +57.0%
10% ← realistic here +83.6% 42% +41.9%
15% +65.9% 38% +28.2%
20% +49.6% 32% +15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +124% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late +149% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$30 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$26,645
Realized+$51,202
Unrealized−$7,856
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses167 / 118
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions168
Markets (closed)285 / 397
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 168 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 98¢ $10,343 $20,365 +$10,022 (+97%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 60¢ 76¢ $1,200 $1,519 +$319 (+27%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $178 $374 +$196 (+110%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $10,343 $321 −$10,022 (-97%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $29 $318 +$289 (+984%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $225 $258 +$32 (+14%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $115 $229 +$114 (+99%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 3¢ 21¢ $29 $209 +$180 (+617%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $9 $184 +$174 (+1855%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 27¢ $19 $136 +$118 (+631%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $98 $136 +$39 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 20¢ 54¢ $43 $114 +$72 (+167%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $17 $113 +$97 (+571%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $68 $101 +$33 (+48%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 2¢ 36¢ $5 $88 +$83 (+1700%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 33¢ $27 $82 +$55 (+200%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $10 $77 +$67 (+675%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $60 $73 +$13 (+21%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $29 $72 +$44 (+152%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $75 $67 −$7 (-10%)
Will USD fall to 17,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $13 $65 +$52 (+405%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 8¢ 28¢ $18 $62 +$44 (+250%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $19 $60 +$41 (+210%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 23¢ $9 $58 +$49 (+559%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $31 $56 +$25 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -72%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 15 $2 +$39 +1900%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $62 +$28 +46%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $12 +$55 +462%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$47 +942%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $499 +$1,114 +223%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $106 +$399 +378%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 14 $42 +$22 +52%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$36 +95%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $17 +$15 +87%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 +50%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $8 +$19 +226%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $28 +$8 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,317 +$681 +52%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $21 +$48 +230%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 13 $0 +$8 +1635%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $340 +$1,479 +435%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $67 +$5 +7%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +50%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $6 +$12 +182%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $11 +$52 +476%
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $5 +$18 +350%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $27 +$5 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $335 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $30 +$15 +50%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $15 +$2 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$5 +29%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 10 $0 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $29 −$8 -27%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 15? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 7¢ $51 13m
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Fight" during meeting with French President? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Fight" during meeting with French President? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Fight" during meeting with French President? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 1h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 1¢ $5 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 4¢ $19 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 1¢ $5 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $6 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $4 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $125 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $187 6h
Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $58 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 4¢ $10 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 4¢ $10 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 6¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,645.09 · official $26,645.23 (match) · 3500 history records