Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a7c…8964 sports 1064 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,445 (+3%) realized +$5,226 · open +$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%552W / 504L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$2,471est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$29,913
14 days−$22,495
30 days−$6,264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$3,836
other 3% +$677
world 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -68.2% -71.2% 17% 17% -68.7%
≤30d 539 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 50% -14.3%
≤90d 1056 +3.7% -6.2% 52% 52% -7.5%
all 1056 +3.7% -6.2% 52% 52% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 52% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 49% -16.3%
15% -23.3% 44% -24.4%
20% -30.9% 37% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$152 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,878
Realized+$5,226
Unrealized+$219
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses552 / 504
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$2,471
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1056 / 1064
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$183
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1056 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 64¢ $241 $300 +$59 (+25%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 37¢ 40¢ $249 $274 +$25 (+10%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 72¢ 76¢ $257 $273 +$16 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $256 $251 −$5 (-2%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 31¢ 63¢ $120 $244 +$124 (+103%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $241 $239 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 58¢ 58¢ $209 $211 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $39 +$33 +85%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $237 +$226 +95%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $236 +$111 +47%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $249 −$245 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $146 −$146 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $175 −$174 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 17 $241 −$241 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $218 −$217 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $267 −$267 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Jun 17 $171 −$171 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $209 22m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $243 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $21 16h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $55 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 68¢ $236 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $8 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $126 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $4 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $13 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $15 26h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 49¢ $5 34h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 50¢ $9 34h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $3 36h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $2 36h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $20 36h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $1 36h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $22 36h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 36¢ $42 41h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 54¢ $0 44h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 54¢ $76 44h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 54¢ $41 44h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 37¢ $208 44h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 47¢ $179 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,877.69 · official $1,874.13 (match) · 3500 history records