Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0A 0x0a7e…fce4 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠

BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (2317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$42,827 (+28%) realized +$42,931 · open −$104

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate77%17W / 5L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6,457per market

Trades / day2317.4pace

Fees−$679est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$4,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (2317 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+3.8%	-6.1%	77%	27%	-9.6%
≤30d	22	+3.8%	-6.1%	77%	27%	-9.6%
≤90d	22	+3.8%	-6.1%	77%	27%	-9.6%
all	22	+3.8%	-6.1%	77%	27%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2317.4 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.1%	27%	-9.6%
10%	-15.1%	14%	-18.2%
15% ← realistic here	-23.3%	9%	-26.1%
20%	-30.8%	9%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$13,400) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +10% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

91.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$414 vs −$1,418 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$4,270

Realized+$42,931

Unrealized−$104

Win rate (resolved)77%

Wins / losses17 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$679

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage2d ⚠

Avg bet$6,457

Trades / day2317.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	No	33¢	32¢	$2,339	$2,205	−$134 (-6%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$2,036	$2,065	+$30 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$5,550	+$100	+2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$3,100	+$438	+14%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$1,571	+$11	+1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$13,410	+$20	+0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$13,460	−$6,514	-48%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$2,196	−$365	-17%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2,000	+$200	+10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$9,930	+$458	+5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20,970	+$208	+1%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 22	$3,570	+$30	+1%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$2,580	+$120	+5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$13,400	+$375	+3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$460	$0	-0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar	Jun 22	$129	−$129	-100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic	Jun 22	$109	+$105	+97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$13,420	+$1,150	+9%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh	Jun 22	$99	+$31	+31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$22,189	+$2,781	+12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$4,030	+$170	+4%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech	Jun 22	$81	−$81	-100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane	Jun 22	$429	+$581	+135%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng	Jun 22	$1,360	+$255	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$390	24m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	24m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	25m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$16	26m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	27m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	27m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$9	28m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	31m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$8	31m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	36m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	39m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	40m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	43m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$4	44m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$42	44m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	44m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	45m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	12¢	$600	46m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$562	47m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$29	47m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	47m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	49m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$3	50m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	50m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$14	50m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$6	50m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$17	50m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$0	50m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$29	51m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$8	51m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,270.25 · official $4,270.25 (match) · 3500 history records