Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a7e…b805 sports 554 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$865 (-1%) realized −$865 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%246W / 308L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1,102est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 191d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,056
other 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 33% -25.1%
≤30d 72 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 39% -15.2%
≤90d 411 -30.4% -37.0% 32% 32% -24.1%
all 554 -7.8% -16.6% 44% 44% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 44% -13.3%
10% -24.5% 43% -21.6%
15% -31.8% 40% -29.2%
20% -38.5% 34% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$133 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$865
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses246 / 308
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 554
History coverage191d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $274 −$270 -98%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 27 $469 +$197 +42%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $288 −$104 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 +$26 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $98 +$110 +112%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $137 −$135 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $70 +$67 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $182 −$82 -45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 +$83 +246%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $92 +$130 +142%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $99 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $88 −$87 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $90 +$98 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $50 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $109 −$107 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $117 −$60 -51%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $158 −$34 -22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $78 +$12 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $50 +$28 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $58 +$13 +22%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $187 −$85 -45%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $117 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 +$117 +116%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $152 −$52 -34%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $66 +$80 +121%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $21 +$166 +811%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $214 −$57 -27%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $66 +$39 +58%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner May 31 $103 −$101 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $265 −$261 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $183 −$15 -8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $102 +$109 +107%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $180 +$178 +99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $105 −$103 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $115 −$113 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $191 −$188 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $93 −$91 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $200 −$108 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $274 1h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders SELL Toronto Argonauts 86¢ $666 1h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 55¢ $287 3h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $66 4h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $6 4h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $35 4h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $35 4h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $35 4h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $6 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $184 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $288 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $49 15d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 31¢ $24 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $74 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $48 15d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 46¢ $102 15d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 50¢ $59 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $208 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $98 15d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 50¢ $137 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $137 15d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $83 15d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 52¢ $82 15d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $99 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $70 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $117 16d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $133 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $34 16d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 26¢ $36 16d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Spurs 73¢ $53 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1326 history records