Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a83…0be8 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (430 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$214 (-2%) realized +$213 · open −$427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day430.3pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$912
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (430 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 30% -18.0%
≤30d 37 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 30% -18.0%
≤90d 37 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 30% -18.0%
all 37 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 30% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover430.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 30% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 30% -25.9%
15% -37.5% 19% -33.1%
20% -43.7% 14% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$56 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$427
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions23
Markets (closed)37 / 60
History coverage1d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day430.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 1 Winner Inner Circle Esports 85¢ 100¢ $165 $194 +$29 (+18%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner QoR 65¢ 79¢ $116 $141 +$24 (+21%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season 9z Team 53¢ 61¢ $105 $121 +$16 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs NAVI Junior 82¢ 100¢ $54 $66 +$12 (+22%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 84¢ 87¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner 100 Thieves 74¢ 100¢ $36 $48 +$13 (+35%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner 9z Team 50¢ 90¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 74¢ 100¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner Inner Circle Esports 65¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner OXEN 32¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+212%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 89¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner Inner Circle Academy 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$8 (-85%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 24¢ 0¢ $331 $1 −$330 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 9¢ 0¢ $96 $1 −$95 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 1 Winner WeClear 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs SNITKO Esports 19¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Hive 25¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Inner Circle Academy 45¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 2 Winner SNITKO Esports 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Hive 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner WeClear 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Hive 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Spirit Academy 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $271 +$106 +39%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $153 −$18 -12%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$18 -37%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $313 −$131 -42%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $47 −$40 -85%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $409 +$134 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $245 +$13 +5%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $113 +$27 +24%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $56 +$23 +41%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $35 +$18 +52%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $66 +$5 +7%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $50 −$20 -40%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $107 −$48 -45%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $52 −$42 -80%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $119 −$21 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $106 −$38 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $150 −$52 -35%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $162 −$84 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $703 −$310 -44%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $242 −$60 -25%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $59 +$34 +58%
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $26 +$24 +92%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $389 +$107 +27%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $134 −$104 -78%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $194 −$127 -65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $361 +$34 +10%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $290 +$65 +22%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $36 +$21 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 59¢ $84 1m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner SELL OXEN 100¢ $10 5m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 28¢ $5 5m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 61¢ $43 5m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 73¢ $7 8m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 73¢ $11 8m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 47¢ $4 11m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 90¢ $30 13m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 74¢ $2 14m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 73¢ $10 15m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 31¢ $2 17m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 57¢ $1 19m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 59¢ $32 22m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 80¢ $3 22m
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu BUY SNITKO Esports 19¢ $33 23m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z Team 50¢ $42 24m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 78¢ $22 25m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 75¢ $24 26m
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu BUY SNITKO Esports 70¢ $11 28m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 89¢ $5 30m
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu BUY Hermine Esports Club 52¢ $27 30m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 22¢ $234 32m
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu BUY SNITKO Esports 45¢ $4 33m
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY SNITKO Esports 3¢ $2 33m
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl BUY NAVI Junior 96¢ $2 34m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 76¢ $5 37m
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Pl BUY NAVI Junior 92¢ $4 38m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 37¢ $21 40m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z Team 62¢ $106 45m
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Leo Team 25¢ $9 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.81 · official $671.14 · 769 history records