Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a84…927d sports 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%39W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$25
other 27% −$22
politics 26% −$16
economics 6% −$4
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 79 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 89 -0.9% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.2%
all 363 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses39 / 324
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage653d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 16 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $54 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $147 −$3 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $276 −$3 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $56 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $220 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $90 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $128 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $56 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $65 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $263 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $125 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 6h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 7h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 35h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $57 36h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $57 42h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 42h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.17 · official $64.17 (match) · 1375 history records