Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a85…23b6 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 86% +15.5%
≤30d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 86% +15.5%
≤90d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 86% +15.5%
all 7 +17.3% +6.1% 86% 86% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 86% +15.5%
10% -4.0% 57% +4.4%
15% -13.3% 43% -5.6%
20% -21.8% 0% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.79 per $1 lost it wins $36.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 −$3 -63%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $110 +$39 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $90 +$14 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $81 +$15 +19%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $57 +$24 +41%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $43 +$14 +32%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $31 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $2 36m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 38m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $110 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $105 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $90 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $96 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $81 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $57 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 4h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $43 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $43 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $27 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records