Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a87…7cc1 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$3
other 13% −$4
politics 5% +$1
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -4.2% -13.3% 18% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -4.2% -13.3% 18% 0% -10.3%
all 21 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 5% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 5% -11.4%
10% -27.1% 0% -19.8%
15% -34.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -40.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage470d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $82 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 −$4 -34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $17 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $17 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $45 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $43 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $18 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $25 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $37 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $6 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $35 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $43 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $34 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $11 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $40.42 (match) · 76 history records