Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0A 0x0a89…916f other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+10%) realized +$45 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$16
crypto 23% +$12
world 21% −$5
sports 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% +12.9%
≤90d 17 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% +12.9%
all 17 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 35% +12.9%
10% +2.6% 35% +2.1%
15% -7.3% 29% -7.8%
20% -16.4% 29% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +102% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$4 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$4 (-70%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 +$30 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $5 13d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 15d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 15d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 17d
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? BUY Yes $5 17d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 17d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 17d
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17d
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 17d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.18 · official $73.18 (match) · 34 history records