Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0A 0x0a8f…0753 tech 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$637per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 60% −$6
other 20% −$2
economics 19% −$2
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 15 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage100d
Avg bet$637
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $1,982 −$2 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $2,040 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $17 26d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 39d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 40d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 56d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 57d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $2,020 64d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $2,022 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $1,909 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $1,911 65d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,061 65d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,063 65d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $1,980 66d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $1,982 66d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,038 66d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,040 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $26 67d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $26 68d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? SELL No 100¢ $16 73d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 73d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 76d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? SELL No 100¢ $26 82d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 95d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $19 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $19 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.88 · official $3.88 (match) · 34 history records