trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+43%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 81¢ | 80¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | Yes | 23¢ | 22¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 11 | $2 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +41% |
| Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Nov 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $3 | +$2 | +69% |
| Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? | Nov 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Oct 24 | $3 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Southampton vs. Leicester end in a draw? | Oct 20 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | Oct 19 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | BUY Yes | 23¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 59¢ | $2 | 1h |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 81¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | BUY Yes | 34¢ | $1 | 40h |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 53¢ | $2 | 40h |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY Yes | 70¢ | $1 | 40h |
| Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | BUY No | 31¢ | $2 | 583d |
| Will Southampton vs. Leicester end in a draw? | BUY No | 72¢ | $1 | 604d |
| Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | BUY No | 91¢ | $3 | 604d |
| Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? | BUY Yes | 79¢ | $1 | 604d |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $1 | 604d |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY Yes | 59¢ | $3 | 604d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -52.4% | -56.9% | 33% | 33% | -63.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -52.4% | -56.9% | 33% | 33% | -63.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -52.4% | -56.9% | 33% | 33% | -63.1% |
| all | 9 | -26.4% | -33.4% | 56% | 33% | -23.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.4% | 33% | -23.9% |
| 10% | -39.8% | 33% | -31.2% |
| 15% | -45.6% | 33% | -37.9% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 11% | -43.9% |