Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0a94…0a7b
weather · 231 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$35 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses93 / 134
Open positions4
Markets (closed)227 / 231
History coverage756d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$187
14 days−$235
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $4 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $35 +$12 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$8 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +188%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$7 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 −$19 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$3 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$17
other 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 17¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 16¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 45h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -18.6% -26.4% 34% 25% -36.9%
≤30d 206 -0.8% -10.3% 39% 34% -16.9%
≤90d 227 +6.2% -3.9% 41% 37% -9.3%
all 227 +6.2% -3.9% 41% 37% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 37% -9.3%
10% -13.1% 34% -18.0%
15% -21.5% 32% -25.9%
20% -29.2% 31% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.80 · official $14.80 (match) · 752 history records