trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 94¢ | 91¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 18 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 12 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| James Madison Dukes vs. Georgia State Panthers | Mar 18 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Clippers vs. Rockets | Feb 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Feb 11 | $2 | −$1 | -50% |
| Nets vs. Pacers | Nov 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Pelicans vs. Thunder | Nov 05 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Florida International vs. Missouri State | Oct 31 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Tulane vs. Tulsa | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Rockets | Oct 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Oct 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| SMU Mustangs vs. Wake Forest | Oct 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma | Oct 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Oct 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Hawks vs. Magic | Oct 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) | Oct 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) | Oct 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Oct 23 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY Yes | 94¢ | $1 | 1h |
| James Madison Dukes vs. Georgia State Panthers | BUY James Madison Dukes | 99¢ | $2 | 112d |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) | BUY FlyQuest | 44¢ | $1 | 235d |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) | BUY G2 Esports | 57¢ | $1 | 235d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 12% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 4% | 0% | -15.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.4% | 0% | -15.0% |
| 10% | -25.3% | 0% | -23.1% |
| 15% | -32.5% | 0% | -30.6% |
| 20% | -39.2% | 0% | -37.4% |