Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a9c…aab6 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$509 (-34%) realized −$505 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$492
30 days−$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$137
other 49% −$647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 +47.8% +33.7% 25% 25% -33.6%
all 13 -0.6% -10.1% 23% 15% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 15% -47.0%
10% -18.7% 15% -52.1%
15% -26.5% 15% -56.7%
20% -33.7% 15% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$102 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$505
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage230d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $499 −$492 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $78 −$77 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 18 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $126 +$386 +307%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $19 +$127 +675%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $230 +$5 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? Jan 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $499 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 36¢ $45 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 28¢ $33 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 24d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 18¢ $49 26d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $30 40d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $512 48d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Movistar KOI 24¢ $126 48d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL GIANTX 100¢ $146 48d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY GIANTX 13¢ $19 48d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Fnatic 28¢ $19 62d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Fnatic 21¢ $80 62d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Shifters 11¢ $10 63d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 13¢ $21 97d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 44¢ $15 118d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 44¢ $220 118d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 25¢ $30 118d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 35¢ $200 118d
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 173d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 190d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 0¢ $1 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $100 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.81 · official $65.81 (match) · 46 history records