Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0aa8…8b79 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-7%) realized −$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$14
sports 15% +$9
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 23% -17.8%
≤30d 22 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 23% -17.8%
≤90d 22 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 23% -17.8%
all 22 -8.0% -16.8% 23% 23% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 23% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 18% -25.7%
15% -32.0% 18% -32.8%
20% -38.7% 18% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions56
Markets (closed)22 / 78
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 31h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.96 · official $93.98 (match) · 87 history records