Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0aa8…cb3d world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$2
other 17% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage462d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 74¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $4 −$1 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $32 −$3 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $32 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $11 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $41 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $2 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $45 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $48 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $32 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records