Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0aa8…3a87 weather 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%91W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$7
world 8% +$3
other 6% +$3
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 130 -30.4% -37.0% 68% 0% -9.5%
all 132 -29.8% -36.4% 69% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -42.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -48.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -53.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses91 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 20 Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20? Apr 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri Apr 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? Apr 19 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 18 Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 17 Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 17 Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 15? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 15? Apr 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? Apr 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 15? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 15? Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will "Temptation Island: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 11 Apr 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 11 Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? Apr 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 12? Apr 13 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $83 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 59d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 20 BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? SELL No 100¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 329 history records