Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0aa9…8637 world 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 52L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$15
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$19
other 37% −$18
politics 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$3
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$15
weather 0% +$12
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 33% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 36 +54.1% +39.4% 36% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 43 +47.1% +33.1% 37% 9% -9.4%
all 91 +20.9% +9.4% 43% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 7% -9.4%
10% -1.1% 4% -18.1%
15% -10.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -19.4% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage480d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $202 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $99 +$6 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 −$14 -42%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $186 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $67 −$7 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $213 +$3 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $102 −$3 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $430 +$5 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $590 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $293 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $383 +$11 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $168 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $64 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $118 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $219 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $219 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,730 −$27 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $200 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $371 −$12 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $175 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $202 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $208 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $380 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $159 +$37 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $205 −$11 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $181 +$4 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $6 −$2 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $58 +$7 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $177 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $173 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $15 +$15 +96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $159 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $9 −$2 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $2,317 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $170 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $202 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $105 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $99 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $11 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $173 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $173 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $60 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $67 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $216 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $194 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $99 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records