Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0aae…251c
other · 287 markets active 7d ago
1.0score
+$611,850 +39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$610,067 · open +$1,782
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$45,616
Realized+$610,067
Unrealized+$1,782
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses198 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions22
Markets (closed)265 / 287
Avg bet$5,449
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 22 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$107
30 days−$1,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $19,100 $19,850 +$750 (+4%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $7,813 $7,896 +$83 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $2,760 $2,962 +$202 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 81¢ $1,675 $2,037 +$362 (+22%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,800 $1,847 +$47 (+3%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,596 $1,690 +$94 (+6%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,380 $1,410 +$30 (+2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,203 $1,249 +$46 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 78¢ 85¢ $1,052 $1,143 +$91 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 79¢ 94¢ $790 $938 +$148 (+19%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 76¢ 86¢ $760 $865 +$105 (+14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $581 $587 +$5 (+1%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $440 $488 +$48 (+11%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 97¢ $431 $480 +$49 (+11%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $435 $448 +$12 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $540 $442 −$98 (-18%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $396 $426 +$30 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 78¢ 66¢ $390 $332 −$58 (-15%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $261 $267 +$6 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $269 $232 −$38 (-14%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $16 $26 +$9 (+58%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Coco Gauff 78¢ 0¢ $1,615 $0 −$1,615 (-100%)
Nothing Ever Happens: March Something 38¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Major US official out by May 31? No 71¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,938 +$62 +3%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $4,960 +$40 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $295 +$205 +69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $3,796 +$204 +5%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $100 +$100 +100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $1,625 −$1,615 -99%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Major US official out by May 31? May 14 $310 −$213 -69%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $483 +$16 +3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 11 $941 +$59 +6%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? May 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 09 $932 −$312 -34%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 08 $612 −$226 -37%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $47,430 +$115 +0%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? Apr 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? Apr 29 $4 +$2 +37%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 29 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c Apr 29 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $25 +$75 +300%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $973 +$27 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $28,184 +$374 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 08 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $20,564 +$134 +1%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 08 $22,874 +$224 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $2,446 +$38 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $22,706 +$168 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1,416 +$62 +4%
Will Spain join the Board of Peace? Mar 18 $454 +$6 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Mar 18 $161 +$4 +2%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $545 +$197 +36%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $44,232 +$3,428 +8%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Mar 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 18 $12 +$10 +82%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 03 $3,615 −$1,969 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $4,760 +$240 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $14,489 +$313 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $8,523 −$7,703 -90%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 28 $67 +$7 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,828 +$100 +6%
Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21? Feb 28 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Feb 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the US strike Yemen next? Feb 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with <2 dissen Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 28 $14 −$14 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 31% +$39,481
crypto 23% +$87,942
other 15% +$408,190
politics 13% +$19,026
world 11% +$20,080
sports 3% +$34,968
tech 2% +$1,760
culture 0% +$370
finance 0% +$31
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $38 6d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $13 6d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $105 6d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $3 7d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $1 7d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4,204 16d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 79¢ $1,363 26d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 75¢ $97 26d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 75¢ $161 26d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 74¢ $4 26d
Nothing Ever Happens: March BUY Something 38¢ $6 28d
Nothing Ever Happens: March BUY Something 38¢ $3 28d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $106 28d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $42 29d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $28 29d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $36 29d
Major US official out by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $58 30d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $125 32d
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $172 34d
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $1 34d
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $19 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $6 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $13 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $10 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $35 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $12 34d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 62¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -13.4% -21.6% 67% 22% -18.2%
≤90d 37 -13.2% -21.5% 65% 16% -8.4%
all 265 +59.9% +44.7% 75% 28% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.7% 28% +25.7%
10% ← realistic here +30.8% 22% +13.7%
15% +18.2% 18% +2.7%
20% +6.6% 15% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,615.84 · official $45,616.09 (match) · 3500 history records