Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0aaf…d41a other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$34
crypto 26% −$73
sports 12% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 38% +20.3%
≤30d 13 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 38% +20.3%
≤90d 16 -22.2% -29.7% 31% 31% -28.6%
all 16 -22.2% -29.7% 31% 31% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 31% -28.6%
10% -36.4% 31% -35.5%
15% -42.5% 31% -41.7%
20% -48.2% 31% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage68d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+133%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +241%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$7 +54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +248%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$16 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $49 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.74 · official $102.74 (match) · 41 history records