Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0ab0…ba53 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$74 (+6%) realized +$73 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$181
14 days−$181
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$13
sports 12% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 57% -26.6%
≤30d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 57% -26.6%
≤90d 8 -7.2% -16.1% 62% 62% -23.3%
all 8 -7.2% -16.1% 62% 62% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 62% -23.3%
10% -24.1% 50% -30.6%
15% -31.4% 50% -37.3%
20% -38.2% 12% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$146 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage56d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $150 −$146 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 −$70 -70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $220 +$141 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 −$221 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$7 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 +$64 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$45 +45%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $97 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $146 10m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 11m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 23m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $150 25m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $361 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $220 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $200 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $150 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 35h
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 55d
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.33 · official $142.33 · 17 history records