Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ab4…772e crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized +$46 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$30
sports 3% −$27
other 3% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 60% +8.6%
≤30d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 60% +8.6%
≤90d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 60% +8.6%
all 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 60% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 60% +8.6%
10% -23.5% 60% -1.8%
15% -30.9% 40% -11.3%
20% -37.7% 20% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage9d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $703 $661 −$42 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $180 $142 −$38 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $187 +$50 +27%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $23 −$16 -67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$11 +96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $23 +$10 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $128 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $119 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $145 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $92 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $180 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $72 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $11 4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 18¢ $7 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 5d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 14¢ $4 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 5d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 37¢ $19 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $33 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $115 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $803.36 · official $803.36 (match) · 43 history records