Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ab6…b30e world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$4
other 21% −$5
sports 6% −$5
politics 4% −$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 0% -8.8%
all 34 -4.7% -13.7% 47% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage477d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $81 +$4 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $4 $0 +7%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on May 27? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $6 −$1 -14%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 14 $17 −$4 -22%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
DePaul vs. Providence Mar 05 $13 −$1 -9%
Grambling State vs. Bethune-Cookman Mar 03 $17 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $47 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $47 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $47 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $45 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $23 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $17 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $40 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $25 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $42 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $42 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $7 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $32 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $25 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.77 · official $47.77 (match) · 97 history records