Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0aba…1910 other 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$757 (+2%) realized +$780 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate76%222W / 69L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$288
14 days+$86
30 days+$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$360
sports 31% +$512
crypto 1% −$82
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.2% +3.4% 85% 81% +5.9%
≤30d 93 +6.5% -3.7% 81% 76% -2.5%
≤90d 282 +0.6% -9.0% 77% 75% -7.7%
all 291 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 75% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 75% -7.3%
10% -18.1% 51% -16.2%
15% -26.0% 22% -24.3%
20% -33.2% 8% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$99 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,127
Realized+$780
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses222 / 69
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions7
Markets (closed)291 / 299
History coverage94d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $550 $530 −$20 (-4%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 78¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 79¢ 80¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Tun Jun 15 $101 +$69 +69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 +$21 +27%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$6 +16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$9 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $76 +$30 +40%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 +$20 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1 Jun 12 $102 +$104 +102%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $76 +$30 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $76 +$31 +42%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$26 +52%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $76 +$23 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $85 +$6 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $80 +$15 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 +$18 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $80 +$11 +13%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $80 +$18 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $50 +$10 +20%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 07 $61 +$28 +46%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $60 +$10 +17%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $60 +$14 +22%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $60 +$14 +23%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $120 +$14 +12%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 06 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $75 +$15 +20%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $50 +$16 +32%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $40 +$17 +42%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $60 +$10 +16%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 03 $101 +$41 +40%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 02 $101 +$68 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $151 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will New Zeala BUY 57¢ $101 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $41 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $81 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $60 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $71 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Tun BUY 59¢ $101 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $75 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $60 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $40 25h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $25 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $76 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $55 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $30 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $80 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $80 3d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1 BUY 49¢ $102 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $76 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $76 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 4d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 5d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $75 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 65¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $75 6d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,126.79 · official $1,226.87 · 597 history records