Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0abb…d188 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$431 (-4%) realized −$431 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%36W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$437
14 days−$537
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$769
other 10% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -2.7% -11.9% 47% 45% -13.3%
≤30d 77 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 44% -14.2%
≤90d 77 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 44% -14.2%
all 77 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 44% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 44% -14.2%
10% -21.4% 43% -22.4%
15% -29.0% 43% -29.9%
20% -36.0% 39% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$121 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses36 / 41
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage7d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$119 +239%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $239 −$189 -79%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $144 +$95 +66%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $101 +$43 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $193 −$190 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $293 −$290 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $316 +$58 +18%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $305 +$11 +4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $234 +$387 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $231 −$228 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $106 +$182 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $106 +$71 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $178 +$248 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $177 −$175 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $102 +$75 +73%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $101 +$78 +77%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $131 +$75 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $117 +$144 +123%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $119 −$116 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $122 −$120 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $447 +$21 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$233 +227%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $154 −$151 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $100 +$54 +54%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $110 −$107 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $102 +$120 +118%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $109 −$107 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$110 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $45 +$30 +66%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $216 −$105 -49%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $54 +$51 +95%
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $109 −$106 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $101 +$119 +118%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Spread: Colombia BUY 27¢ $167 55m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner SELL Division One 100¢ $169 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Division One 29¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 47¢ $239 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $239 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $144 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 100¢ $144 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 70¢ $101 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $193 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $203 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $293 10h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 56¢ $374 18h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 26¢ $316 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $1 19h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $305 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $315 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $621 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $231 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $234 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $287 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $178 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $106 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $106 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $107 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $107 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $425 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $178 30h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $177 30h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $177 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $163.91 · 121 history records