Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0abd…695a crypto 1381 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-1%) realized −$85 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%924W / 456L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$201
14 days+$289
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$233
other 0% −$3
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 +2.0% -7.7% 85% 49% -6.1%
≤30d 610 +2.9% -6.9% 87% 42% -6.0%
≤90d 1380 -7.2% -16.0% 67% 46% -7.6%
all 1380 -7.2% -16.0% 67% 46% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 46% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 26% -16.5%
15% -31.4% 17% -24.5%
20% -38.1% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses924 / 456
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1380 / 1381
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$35 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$3 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $36 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.37 · official $7.37 (match) · 3500 history records