Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0A 0x0ac0…10d6 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+5%) realized −$1 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$10
sports 24% +$9
politics 22% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +4.3% -5.7% 33% 33% -6.3%
≤90d 6 +4.3% -5.7% 33% 33% -6.3%
all 6 +4.3% -5.7% 33% 33% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 33% -6.3%
10% -14.7% 33% -15.3%
15% -22.9% 33% -23.5%
20% -30.5% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$17 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage72d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 70¢ 86¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $15 +$59 +385%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 01 $36 +$15 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.69 · official $46.69 (match) · 14 history records