Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ac2…b2f4 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$28
politics 24% −$13
sports 21% −$10
economics 8% −$4
world 5% −$5
finance 4% −$5
crypto 4% −$4
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.1% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 122 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 141 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 128
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage104d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $284 −$2 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $106 −$3 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $60 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $64 −$2 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $111 −$2 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $203 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $190 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $170 −$1 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $24 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $347 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $174 −$1 -1%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $60 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $61 5h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $57 6h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $58 10h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $59 10h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $59 18h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 95¢ $51 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $50 24h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $69 25h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $69 31h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 31h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $47 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $47 46h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $56 46h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $55 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.46 · official $57.46 (match) · 509 history records