Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0A 0x0ac3…1e02 crypto 1055 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$108 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%998W / 56L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$81
14 days+$93
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$113
world 1% −$97
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$3
culture 0% +$2
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 +1.9% -7.8% 97% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 689 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 689 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 2% -8.8%
all 1054 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -8.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses998 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1054 / 1055
History coverage116d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1054 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 52¢ 19¢ $150 $54 −$96 (-64%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $150 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.92 · official $54.14 · 2159 history records