Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0ac5…416f crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,621 (+40%) realized +$2,620 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%26W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$3
14 days+$2,553
30 days+$2,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$2,336
sports 8% +$190
crypto 6% −$19
world 1% +$50
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$7
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.3% +5.2% 67% 67% -7.2%
≤30d 15 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 60% +28.4%
≤90d 20 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 50% +27.8%
all 39 +12.9% +2.2% 67% 56% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 56% +25.6%
10% -7.6% 41% +13.6%
15% -16.5% 36% +2.6%
20% -24.7% 26% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$15 · ×7.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.22 per $1 lost it wins $14.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2,620
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses26 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage574d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 85¢ 86¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $28 +$10 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $14 +$10 +73%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 24 $5 +$9 +176%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $5,343 +$2,327 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $384 +$173 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $202 +$39 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $58 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$45 +97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 10 $2 +$1 +60%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? Feb 19 $62 +$48 +78%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Feb 16 $1 +$6 +567%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 16 $10 +$18 +178%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 28 $63 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $57 +$6 +10%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Mar 25 $20 +$14 +71%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $10 +$10 +108%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Tesla bot at Trump inauguration? Jan 21 $5 $0 +9%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? Jan 03 $4 $0 +5%
Chiefs vs. Steelers Dec 25 $1 +$1 +51%
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy? Dec 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $7 +$3 +45%
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Raiders vs. Chiefs Nov 30 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $38 51m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $38 57m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $14 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 24¢ $14 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $14 11d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $7,600 11d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $51 12d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $355 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $557 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $384 13d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $31 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $68 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $58 13d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $17 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $77 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $11 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $156 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $110 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $7 14d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 79¢ $175 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.67 · official $38.67 (match) · 136 history records