Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0A 0x0ac6…636e other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+5%) realized +$44 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$48
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$115
economics 38% −$3
sports 7% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% -38.9%
≤30d 3 -33.1% -39.4% 33% 33% -42.7%
≤90d 3 -33.1% -39.4% 33% 33% -42.7%
all 4 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 25% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 25% -21.8%
10% -38.7% 25% -29.3%
15% -44.6% 25% -36.1%
20% -50.0% 25% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$37 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage196d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $306 $299 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $289 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $210 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $99 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 96¢ $286 195d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $280 195d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.82 · official $298.82 (match) · 9 history records