Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0ac6…9460 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+12%) realized +$69 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$122
other 10% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +84.5% +66.9% 100% 100% +66.9%
≤30d 38 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 45% +10.5%
≤90d 38 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 45% +10.5%
all 38 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 45% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 45% +10.5%
10% -16.8% 42% -0.1%
15% -24.9% 39% -9.7%
20% -32.2% 39% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage26d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings Washington Freedom 55¢ 68¢ $98 $121 +$23 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $63 +$68 +108%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $63 +$42 +66%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $67 +$53 +80%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 06 $3 +$2 +52%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $12 +$3 +25%
Libema Open, Qualification: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Lin Zhu Jun 06 $11 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $14 +$12 +88%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $10 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 −$6 -56%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 05 $15 +$10 +70%
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska Jun 04 $29 −$19 -67%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $20 +$19 +94%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Andreeva Jun 04 $25 +$27 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $29 −$6 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 +$19 +197%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $30 −$29 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $20 +$46 +227%
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Chwalinska Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 03 $20 −$11 -56%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $12 +$8 +66%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $20 +$13 +65%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $15 −$2 -12%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $11 +$12 +107%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $12 −$1 -5%
Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Kostyuk Jun 02 $10 +$9 +91%
Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs Cirstea Jun 02 $9 +$6 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $132 1h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Washington Freedom 55¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $63 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL Ireland 96¢ $105 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 57¢ $63 12h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal SELL Sumit Nagal 72¢ $121 12h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 40¢ $37 14h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 38¢ $31 14h
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 52¢ $18 21d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 21d
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva SELL Andreeva 94¢ $5 21d
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva BUY Andreeva 61¢ $3 21d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Alexandra Eala 68¢ $15 21d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Alexandra Eala 53¢ $12 21d
Libema Open, Qualification: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Lin Zhu SELL Lin Zhu 74¢ $12 21d
Libema Open, Qualification: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 63¢ $11 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten BUY Helioevaara/Patten 29¢ $9 21d
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan BUY Hynek Barton 34¢ $6 21d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China SELL Hong Kong, China 83¢ $26 21d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 43¢ $14 21d
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava BUY Guy Den Ouden 32¢ $10 22d
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov BUY Marco Cecchinato 35¢ $10 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik $4 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 13¢ $10 22d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev SELL Zverev 97¢ $25 22d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev BUY Zverev 56¢ $15 22d
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska BUY Shnaider 43¢ $20 23d
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska SELL Chwalinska 46¢ $9 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 40¢ $10 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 39¢ $11 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.50 · official $121.50 (match) · 75 history records