Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ac6…3684 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-15%) realized −$82 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$178
sports 27% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -39.3%
≤30d 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -39.3%
≤90d 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -39.3%
all 10 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -39.3%
10% -30.6% 40% -45.1%
15% -37.3% 40% -50.4%
20% -43.5% 40% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$67 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 +$16 +57%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 −$95 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $47 +$51 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$52 -34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 9h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $28 22h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 22h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $96 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $47 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $97 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $66 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.23 · official $15.23 (match) · 18 history records