Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0aca…9e01 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$371 (+23%) realized +$376 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%31W / 32L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$247
7 days−$138
14 days−$57
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$215
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -9.1% -17.7% 40% 40% -21.8%
≤30d 63 +25.9% +14.0% 49% 46% +2.1%
≤90d 63 +25.9% +14.0% 49% 46% +2.1%
all 63 +25.9% +14.0% 49% 46% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 46% +2.1%
10% +3.0% 46% -7.7%
15% -6.9% 43% -16.6%
20% -16.0% 41% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$22 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses31 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage28d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$24 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$39 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$51 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$17 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $87 −$27 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$23 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$36 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$45 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$22 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$16 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$36 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$36 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$6 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$9 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$18 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $22 +$96 +436%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $22 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $20 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.23 · official $15.23 (match) · 136 history records