Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0acd…b1f5
sports · 156 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$89 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$84 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses85 / 70
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage188d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$15
14 days+$56
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 9z 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $8 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 +$31 +203%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$3 +83%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 04 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $12 +$3 +25%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 +$2 +101%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q Jun 02 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2 +$2 +86%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 29 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $7 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $16 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $25 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 16 $11 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $20 +$2 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 11 $5 +$3 +57%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Imperial Academy (BO3) - European Pro L May 04 $1 +$2 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$134
world 18% +$4
tech 9% −$11
other 6% +$37
crypto 5% −$15
culture 4% −$39
politics 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 77¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 69¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 14¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $5 21h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 38¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 10¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 19¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 60¢ $46 8d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 8¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 69¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 61¢ $8 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 64¢ $8 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 32¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 64¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 80¢ $12 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY MIBR 62¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 45¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 34¢ $2 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 39¢ $2 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 23¢ $2 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 42¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 54¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 47¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 51¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +49.1% +34.9% 71% 71% +56.9%
≤30d 43 +15.9% +4.8% 65% 65% +17.3%
≤90d 75 +7.9% -2.3% 57% 55% -4.8%
all 155 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 48% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 48% -5.1%
10% -16.7% 43% -14.2%
15% -24.7% 36% -22.5%
20% -32.1% 31% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 446 history records