Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ada…0826 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+3%) realized +$162 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%38W / 9L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$14
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$11
crypto 24% −$25
tech 18% +$1
economics 6% +$7
sports 5% +$1
finance 3% +$2
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.7% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 10 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 20% -2.3%
all 47 -2.8% -12.1% 81% 19% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 19% -6.8%
10% -20.5% 17% -15.7%
15% -28.2% 6% -23.9%
20% -35.2% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses38 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage236d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $108 $201 +$94 (+87%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 81¢ 81¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 25¢ 24¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 61¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $108 $14 −$94 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Jun 22 $80 +$3 +4%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 10 $79 −$12 -16%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 10 $125 −$4 -4%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $61 +$5 +9%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $46 +$12 +27%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $82 +$2 +3%
Will Amazon dip to $208 in March? Mar 28 $0 $0 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 28 $78 +$42 +54%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 20 $116 +$11 +10%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 09 $87 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $140? Feb 19 $87 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $230? Feb 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of January? Feb 01 $87 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18? Jan 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 21 $9 +$14 +156%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 12 above $130? Jan 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Nigeria win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 15 $31 +$9 +28%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 7? Jan 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of December 29 above $160? Jan 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of December? Jan 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 29? Dec 31 $92 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 29 $73 +$17 +24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 20? Dec 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 22 $15 +$9 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-20? Dec 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 19? Dec 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on December 16? Dec 17 $65 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Sharks Dec 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14? Dec 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $63 +$14 +22%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 10? Dec 11 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 5? Dec 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will Malmö FF win on 2025-11-27? Dec 01 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 24? Nov 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Nov 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $27 −$27 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 18 $1 $0 +35%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-15? Nov 18 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 9? Nov 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 02 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 25¢ $19 1h
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 61¢ $15 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $83 1h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $42 11d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $24 11d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $80 11d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 93¢ $120 11d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 81¢ $18 22d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $66 23d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $61 73d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 96¢ $58 73d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 76¢ $46 79d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 79d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 85d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $79 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 72¢ $17 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 72¢ $39 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 28¢ $28 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 26¢ $26 86d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $125 93d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $127 93d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $116 101d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $78 104d
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $87 104d
Will Amazon dip to $208 in March? BUY No 1¢ $0 112d
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $87 122d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $140? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 129d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $230? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.57 · official $265.57 (match) · 134 history records