Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0adb…f95e other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
other 29% $0
sports 9% +$16
politics 9% −$7
crypto 7% +$1
weather 7% +$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% +$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +6.8% -3.4% 42% 17% -7.5%
≤90d 12 +6.8% -3.4% 42% 17% -7.5%
all 46 -0.5% -10.0% 39% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 9% -7.9%
10% -18.6% 9% -16.7%
15% -26.5% 7% -24.7%
20% -33.7% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage476d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $49 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $52 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $86 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $12 +$7 +61%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $20 +$5 +28%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 09 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Everton be relegated? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tariff event on April 2? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $24 $0 -1%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 27 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $33 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" 10+ times during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $31 +$1 +3%
Weber State vs. Eastern Washington Mar 20 $16 +$16 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 2m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $55 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $55 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 23h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $40 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $8 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $18 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $39 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $52 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $17 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $33 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $52 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $22 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $52 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records