Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0ade…ed94 sports 1204 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40,498 (-17%) realized −$40,766 · open +$268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%646W / 513L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day125.4pace
Fees−$3,506est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$16,729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 437 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 51% -12.4%
≤30d 1159 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 49% -15.9%
≤90d 1159 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 49% -15.9%
all 1159 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 49% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 49% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 40% -24.0%
15% -31.1% 28% -31.3%
20% -37.8% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$133 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$6,077
Realized−$40,766
Unrealized+$268
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses646 / 513
Est. fees paid−$3,506
Open positions45
Markets (closed)1159 / 1204
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day125.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 1159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jennifer Ruggeri 62¢ 96¢ $197 $306 +$110 (+56%)
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Valentina Ryser 69¢ 69¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ 74¢ $197 $197 +$0 (+0%)
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 69¢ 69¢ $198 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Yibing Wu 74¢ 74¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Gustavo Heide 72¢ 70¢ $199 $196 −$3 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 56¢ 56¢ $196 $195 −$2 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ 56¢ $196 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Frederico Ferreira Silva 56¢ 55¢ $198 $195 −$4 (-2%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Titouan Droguet 55¢ 55¢ $196 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 69¢ 68¢ $197 $193 −$4 (-2%)
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Gilles Arnaud Bailly 74¢ 72¢ $197 $192 −$5 (-3%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Paulo Dos Santos 55¢ 54¢ $196 $191 −$5 (-3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Mai Hontama 75¢ 69¢ $197 $183 −$15 (-7%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Joao Lucas Da Silva 58¢ 100¢ $99 $172 +$72 (+73%)
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Caty McNally 67¢ 100¢ $99 $147 +$48 (+49%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Viktorija Golubic 60¢ 88¢ $98 $145 +$47 (+47%)
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ 90¢ $98 $140 +$41 (+42%)
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Norbert Gombos 64¢ 82¢ $99 $126 +$28 (+28%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Darja Vidmanova 77¢ 90¢ $99 $115 +$16 (+16%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xiyu Wang 83¢ 88¢ $99 $105 +$7 (+7%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 73¢ 74¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Pavel Kotov 86¢ 88¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 55¢ 55¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jaime Faria 45¢ 46¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $99 −$74 -75%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $99 +$48 +48%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $201 +$107 +53%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $99 +$45 +46%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $100 −$51 -51%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $99 +$58 +58%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $201 +$107 +53%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $100 −$48 -48%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $200 +$71 +36%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $99 +$20 +20%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $99 +$2 +2%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $100 +$32 +32%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $99 −$41 -41%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $199 +$129 +65%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $99 +$16 +16%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $99 +$9 +9%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $199 +$68 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $199 +$79 +40%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $199 +$52 +26%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $100 −$56 -56%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $99 −$66 -67%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $199 −$56 -28%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $100 +$50 +50%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $99 +$26 +26%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $200 +$7 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $99 +$18 +18%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $199 +$74 +37%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $99 +$18 +19%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $199 −$85 -43%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $199 −$147 -74%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $199 −$144 -72%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $199 +$69 +35%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $100 +$70 +70%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $99 −$58 -58%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $99 +$11 +11%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $100 +$26 +27%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $99 −$56 -57%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $100 −$77 -77%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $199 +$92 +46%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $100 −$74 -74%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $199 +$51 +26%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $99 +$6 +6%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $100 −$3 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $99 +$34 +34%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $99 +$9 +9%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $199 +$68 +34%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $199 −$134 -67%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $199 −$70 -35%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $200 −$151 -75%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin SELL Norbert Gombos 83¢ $127 3m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 7¢ $24 9m
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 64¢ $147 12m
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere SELL Jesper de Jong 26¢ $49 20m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 89¢ $99 21m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 80¢ $99 21m
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 66¢ $100 22m
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $100 22m
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $100 22m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 95¢ $99 22m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 67¢ $100 42m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 51¢ $100 51m
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon SELL Pedro Martinez 37¢ $53 52m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 65¢ $157 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 32¢ $51 1h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 84¢ $0 1h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 84¢ $55 1h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 84¢ $76 1h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 23¢ $98 1h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 61¢ $100 1h
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan SELL Maxim Mrva 90¢ $120 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Philip Henning 84¢ $121 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 96¢ $101 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 88¢ $39 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 89¢ $92 1h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 51¢ $59 1h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva 80¢ $137 1h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 45¢ $99 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele SELL Jurij Rodionov 89¢ $115 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 55¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,077.01 · official $6,077.14 (match) · 3500 history records