Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ae0…df20 sports 180 markets active 5d ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$4
other 24% −$3
politics 14% −$2
economics 10% −$2
culture 7% −$1
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 180 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage160d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $93 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $46 $0 -1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $161 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $151 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $286 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $49 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $165 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $47 12d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $47 12d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $37 20d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $37 20d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $45 31d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $46 34d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $46 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $46 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 91¢ $33 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 91¢ $33 118d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 118d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 118d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $48 118d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $48 118d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $46 118d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $46 118d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $12 118d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $30 118d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $12 118d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $19 118d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $49 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 119d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $50 119d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 92¢ $50 119d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $44 119d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $44 119d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $43 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 581 history records