Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ae0…2423 world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-2%) realized −$148 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate87%55W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days−$125
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$47
finance 16% +$40
other 14% −$54
sports 6% −$84
crypto 6% +$10
tech 3% +$5
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 40 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 5% -11.7%
≤90d 63 -3.0% -12.2% 87% 14% -12.9%
all 63 -3.0% -12.2% 87% 14% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 14% -12.9%
10% -20.6% 2% -21.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -28.8%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$48 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,411
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses55 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)63 / 71
History coverage48d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $425 $454 +$29 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $176 $180 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 91¢ 90¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $139 $134 −$5 (-4%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $128 $131 +$3 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $123 $123 −$0 (-0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 83¢ $104 $91 −$13 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 19 $160 +$15 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 19 $209 +$6 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $97 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 19 $123 +$6 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 19 $145 +$8 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 18 $156 +$5 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $156 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $95 +$3 +4%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 18 $61 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 08 $18 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $233 +$19 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $322 −$204 -63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $102 +$8 +8%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $87 +$5 +5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $53 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $76 +$6 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $58 +$4 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $82 +$3 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $88 +$5 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$2 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $54 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $58 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $74 +$4 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $31 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $69 +$4 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $58 +$6 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $59 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $34 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $41 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $110 +$8 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $59 +$4 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $57 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $63 +$6 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $54 −$28 -52%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $31 +$8 +26%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 16 $28 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $149 41m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $175 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 99¢ $215 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $129 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 99¢ $153 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $79 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $72 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 34h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 34h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 34h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 34h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $142 39h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 39h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $123 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $123 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $238 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $23 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $95 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 94¢ $176 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $156 4d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $156 4d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $72 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $41 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,410.62 · official $1,410.72 (match) · 214 history records