Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0ae1…e1a8 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-8%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$20
world 31% −$1
culture 10% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% $0
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.5%
all 19 -11.2% -19.6% 42% 0% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 0% -17.1%
10% -27.3% 0% -25.1%
15% -34.3% 0% -32.3%
20% -40.8% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage444d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 47¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$1 -3%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $19 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $31 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $31 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $28 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $29 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 24d
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? BUY No 95¢ $1 355d
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el BUY No 99¢ $2 390d
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? BUY No 98¢ $17 405d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 97¢ $16 405d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 97¢ $16 405d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $8 405d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 405d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A SELL Yes $0 405d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A SELL Yes $1 405d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A SELL Yes $2 405d
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $13 405d
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A BUY Yes $4 405d
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? SELL No 98¢ $17 406d
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? BUY No 98¢ $17 406d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $17 406d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $17 406d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 96¢ $17 407d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 96¢ $17 407d
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 407d
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 410d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $15 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.20 · official $28.20 (match) · 46 history records