Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0ae5…6aa2 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$107 (+2%) realized −$130 · open +$237
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$239
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$238
sports 21% +$475
crypto 8% −$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.7% -12.0% 32% 32% +11.2%
≤30d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 32% 32% +5.4%
≤90d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 32% 32% +5.4%
all 25 -8.7% -17.4% 32% 32% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 32% +5.4%
10% -25.3% 32% -4.7%
15% -32.5% 28% -13.9%
20% -39.2% 24% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$116 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage9d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $586 $824 +$237 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $367 +$227 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $179 +$188 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 −$56 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $166 −$159 -96%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$240 +433%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 −$54 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 −$53 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $294 +$689 +234%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $387 −$381 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 14 $421 −$34 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $269 +$153 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $203 +$66 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $537 −$323 -60%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $105 +$433 +413%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $177 −$174 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$106 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $149 +$62 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $594 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $594 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $367 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $367 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $179 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $3 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $59 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $3 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $166 28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia $1 28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 40¢ $55 30h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $55 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $91 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $296 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $56 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $56 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $55 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $73 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $983 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $294 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $387 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 61¢ $387 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $421 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $421 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $269 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $269 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.57 · official $813.56 · 40 history records