Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0ae7…33ff crypto 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,956 (+8%) realized +$6,956 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%241W / 290L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$380
14 days−$808
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,170
other 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 30% -36.0%
≤30d 241 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 41% -13.5%
≤90d 377 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 41% -19.2%
all 531 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 43% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 43% -3.6%
10% -20.8% 41% -12.8%
15% -28.4% 39% -21.2%
20% -35.5% 36% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$112 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$6,956
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses241 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)531 / 532
History coverage99d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 531 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $96 −$68 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$24 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $113 −$62 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$107 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $149 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$84 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$77 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$19 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$18 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$29 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$32 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $122 −$116 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $79 +$135 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$76 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 06 $104 +$149 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 06 $104 −$62 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $52 +$120 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $61 +$71 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 06 $50 −$48 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $83 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $126 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $42 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.87 · official $2.87 (match) · 1307 history records