Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0aea…2358
weather · 122 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage31d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$9
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 76¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? No 73¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 75¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? No 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 77¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 21? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? No 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? No 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? No 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? No 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 29? No 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 25? No 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? No 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on May 20? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22? No 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 26? No 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 25? No 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? No 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? No 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29? No 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 4? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 3? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 6? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 02 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% $0
crypto 11% −$4
other 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $3 45h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 70¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 66¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.5% +7.2% 84% 84% +6.4%
≤30d 113 -10.5% -19.0% 58% 55% -11.0%
≤90d 117 -10.4% -18.9% 56% 53% -11.2%
all 117 -10.4% -18.9% 56% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 53% -11.2%
10% -26.7% 51% -19.7%
15% -33.8% 38% -27.4%
20% -40.3% 16% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.47 · official $22.47 (match) · 219 history records