Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0aea…2bc9 world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$30
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$26
other 25% +$1
politics 17% +$4
sports 9% +$5
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -10.9% 17% 17% -13.0%
≤30d 21 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 14% -10.6%
≤90d 77 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 4% -9.7%
all 94 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 61
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage488d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $38 +$7 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $24 −$3 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $97 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $299 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $284 −$32 -11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $341 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $14 +$2 +15%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $106 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $117 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $153 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 31 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 -8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $93 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $33 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $475 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $85 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $105 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $102 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $166 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $172 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $118 +$5 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $13 $0 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $99 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $111 +$4 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $218 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $7 $0 -6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $186 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $38 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $77 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $77 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $58 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $78 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $57 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $21 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $81 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records