Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0aef…e9a1 crypto 1077 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,793 (+2%) realized +$1,793 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%85W / 1003L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day77.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +16.6% +5.5% 20% 15% -2.1%
≤30d 1088 +3.7% -6.1% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 1088 +3.7% -6.1% 8% 6% -9.7%
all 1088 +3.7% -6.1% 8% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 6% -18.3%
15% -23.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$161 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,793
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses85 / 1003
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1088 / 1077
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day77.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1088 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$3 -2169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$18 -12960%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$8 -8184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -2821%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$2 +3289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$3 +7017%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$4 +8351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -2954%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$15 -21098%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$3 -7253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $698 +$669 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $187 −$173 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $935 +$440 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $921 +$469 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $935 −$923 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $113 −$111 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $786 +$652 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $398 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $644 +$54 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $490 −$421 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,090 +$378 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $646 +$155 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $648 +$161 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $434 −$411 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $354 +$68 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $402 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,004 +$57 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $366 −$360 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records