Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0A 0x0af0…ce9f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$29 (+10%) realized +$24 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$12
crypto 9% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.5% +18.9% 33% 33% +1.1%
≤30d 3 +31.5% +18.9% 33% 33% +1.1%
≤90d 3 +31.5% +18.9% 33% 33% +1.1%
all 3 +31.5% +18.9% 33% 33% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 33% +1.1%
10% +7.6% 33% -8.6%
15% -2.8% 33% -17.4%
20% -12.4% 33% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$8 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$32 +122%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$14 -28%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.91 · official $212.82 (match) · 11 history records