Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0af1…2ffe other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%34W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$13
politics 23% −$11
other 23% −$17
culture 8% −$3
crypto 7% −$1
economics 5% −$1
finance 4% $0
world 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 82 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 163 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses34 / 129
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage159d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 96¢ 96¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $358 −$2 -1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $175 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $154 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $298 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $228 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $476 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $99 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $91 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $231 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 20 $101 −$4 -4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $396 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 11d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 11d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 11d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 93¢ $57 19d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 93¢ $57 19d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 95¢ $50 33d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $50 33d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $52 43d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $52 43d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $45 43d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $34 43d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $11 43d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 43d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 43d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 43d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 43d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 44d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 44d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 44d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $57 44d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $58 44d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $65 44d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 44d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 44d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 44d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 44d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 44d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.73 · official $43.73 (match) · 691 history records