Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0af1…c3ac other 76 markets active 18h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%15W / 59L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$13
politics 14% −$9
other 11% +$1
sports 2% +$48
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 20 +0.6% -9.0% 10% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 57 -7.4% -16.2% 16% 11% -10.5%
all 74 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 12% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 11% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 9% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses15 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage620d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $21 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 +$10 +114%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $123 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $128 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 +$4 +75%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 17h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 18h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 40h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 41h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $4 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $8 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.18 · official $112.18 (match) · 318 history records